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said the Greek poet Salamis Euripides twenty-five centuries ago, " L Expected or not, is the unexpected that happens." And so often happens in the economy and society. Suddenly, there are unexpected events that radically changed our understanding of life and have very important consequences. This kind of made the U.S. financial Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls them Black Swans.


Taleb uses this term as a metaphor based on what happened in Europe in 1697. Until that time it was thought that all swans were white, but the first explorers arrived from Tasmania with black swans removing items that paradigm. Until then, logically, no one could foresee.


Something similar happens to the economists, entrepreneurs, leaders and managers when it appears a crisis or risk of a pandemic (or Google, or Internet or many other black swans) As stated Taleb, economists are extraordinary explaining what has occurred and providing dismal futures. Indeed, when Taleb presented his theory, the World Bank did not make him too much grace.

Why are we so bad envisioning the future? For many reasons. First is purely biological. Our brains are primed for survival but not for complex and probabilistic decisions. In the past it was easier get out alive if we went to see a lion running, if we were evaluating other likely (basically because the lion is not expected). Second, our education, which is based more on memorizing facts, not to identify patterns. And third because the complex world we live in is growing and makes it more difficult than ever to predict what will happen in the short term.

Thus, if a Black Swan is able to break the strategies we have prepared for months (as happened with the 11-S) what is best to refocus decisions from another angle. The first challenge is learning to learn, ie, managers have to focus less on what they know but what they know. should be defined factual scenarios that can get us out of our comfort zone in a radical way and to incorporate the possible strategies.

The second challenge is to promote positive black swans within the organizations themselves, ie to promote radical innovations changing markets. The Law of Archimedes, the discovery of penicillin by Fleming, the 3M Post-it or Pfizer Viagra born "by chance". But this, create contexts for that to happen, like Google does with the 70/20/10 rule that applies to all professionals, 70% of time on core business activities, 20% of business-related projects, and 10% to new ideas or projects where "anything goes." And finally, manage the fear of failure.

is clear that in a world so complex no one can guarantee success on the first try. What is Play Important Fact: Dare, err and relearn. The World of Black Swans Do not Wait. or act, or missing.

"is a real privilege to have endured a difficult life."

Indira Gandhi